It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
