Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
